Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Where to go from here

I had a couple of comments from people on my last post asking about the Panthers, and it's probably better to address all of the Panthers woes in a separate post. It may get a little lengthy.

My initial thought of Carolina looking like a 7-9 team seems very generous right now, seeing the Panthers would have to go 3-2 to get there.

The remaining schedule is as follows, with games where the Panthers will not be favored in bold:

Dec. 2: vs San Francisco
Dec. 9: at Jacksonville
Dec. 16: vs Seattle
Dec. 22: vs Dallas
Dec. 30: at Tampa Bay

The Panthers better win against the 49ers this week, because the schedule is brutal the rest of the way.

The game at Jacksonville and the home game against Dallas are practically guaranteed losses. My best guess now it Carolina will find a way to beat the Niners, then spring an upset on either Seattle or Tampa and finish 6-10. But I wouldn't be surprised if the team finished 4-12 either.

A couple of other thoughts:

I've heard from a bunch of people that this season cannot be necessarily blamed on coach John Fox or general manager Marty Hurney because the Panthers have been beset by a rash of injuries. I don't buy that for a second. It's the responsibility of the general manager - and coach, too - to put together a team that is capable of overcoming big injuries. Jake Delhomme has gone down with a major elbow injury, and might never be the same again. The Panthers brass hand-picked David Carr as the much-needed backup, and it was a bad signing. Thinking back to when it happened, more teams were interested in Trent Dilfer than Carr, who got serious consideration from only two teams.

The team also relied way too much on Dan Morgan, who will almost certainly be forced to retire now, and tries to skirt through positions with little to no depth.

Carolina essentially has three defensive ends - Julius Peppers, Mike Rucker and Stanley McClover. Charles Johnson has been inactive this year. At linebacker, the story is the same. Beason is a monster player, and Thomas Davis and Na'il Diggs are quite serviceable, but the lone backup who could actually produce is James Anderson. The secondary is patchwork. Richard Marshall is a solid option at No. 3 cornerback, but Panthers management stubbornly refused to get a big safety. Then they tried to sell Deke Cooper as a viable option, even though he's been cut by several teams throughout the league.

Offensively, it's not a lot better. DeShaun Foster got a a fistful of money for having produced very little as a Panther, and the zone blocking schemes have been mediocre to this point.

I'm not trying to blast this team, but if you take a long, honest look at evaluating this roster from the top down, it's not very good.

The big question is where does that leave Fox and Hurney at the end of the season? The team needs to show at least some signs, or both will be gone. Both may be gone regardless. But if the Panthers show some life in these last few weeks and finish on a high note - say 7-9 - that could be enough.

Monday, November 5, 2007

Panthers' season slipping away

It looks like the Carolina Panthers are destined for third place in the NFC South.

Tampa Bay has played consistent football all season (and already owns a win over Carolina), and the surging Saints appear to have their offense in top form. The Panthers, meanwhile, have shown no ability to get the ball to Steve Smith in the crunch (or at all) and may start Matt Moore at quarterback next week.

Let's get this straight. Jake Delhomme goes out with a season-ending elbow injury, David Carr gets his back messed up, Vinny Testaverde's improbable return gives the Panthers a win, but then he gets injured, and Carr suffers a concussion against the Titans.

Yes, there are lots of things Carolina could and should be doing better, but this might be the most injured team in the league overall. Remember, in addition to the quarterbacks, Dan Morgan has missed lots of time (shock), Mike Rucker is coming off a major knee injury and several other players have been nursing minor-but-nagging injuries throughout the season.

It's been a weird year for Carolina. I thought the win against St. Louis in the opening week would set the tone for an 11-5 season. When the Panthers lost the next week to Houston, I was sure they were a 6-10 team. Therein lies another problem. The team is so inconsistent week to week.

This week? It looks like a 7-9 team.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

Can the Patriots go undefeated?

I've always maintained that, in this era in the NFL, no team is able to go undefeated. Looks like the New England Patriots are testing that theory.

The Pats, 8-0 heading into this week's game against the also undefeated Indianapolis Colts, are simply toying with teams right now. The defense is as dominant as ever, Tom Brady is in the zone of a lifetime and head coach Bill Belichick is not holding anything back in coaching ... and running up the score.

So will the Patriots go undefeated? I'm going to stick with my guns and say no, although this is the best NFL team I've ever seen. It also helps that they play in an incredibly weak conference, and are all but assured of a 6-0 conference record.

With that said, here's a breakdown of their remaining schedule with some thoughts at the end.

Nov. 3: New England at Indianapolis
Nov. 10: Bye
Nov. 18: New England at Buffalo
Nov. 25: Philadelphia at New England
Dec. 3: New England at Baltimore
Dec. 9: Pittsburgh at New England
Dec. 16: New York Jets at New England
Dec. 23: Miami at New England
Dec. 29: New England at New York Giants

The games in bold are, in my opinion, mortal locks that the Pats will win. And yes, I included the bye week.

I think New England will win at Indianapolis this week. So the biggest test remaining?

Actually, there are two. Dec. 3 at Baltimore and Dec. 9 at home against Pittsburgh.

The game against Baltimore stands out because the Ravens are one of the few teams in the league as physical as New England. That's a big Monday night game, too. If New England wins that game, then it has a short week to prepare for the Steelers, another physical team.

If New England somehow makes it to 15-0, which is certainly possible, what will Belichick do in Week 17? Will he play his starters the entire game, or will he rest them for the playoffs? With Dallas having a pretty good year, too, this game might decide the NFC East for the Giants, so they'll play their top guys all game.

There's just too many different scenarios for the Patriots to go undefeated. I don't think they'll do it. They will win the Super Bowl, though, and easily.