Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Second-half forecast

We ran an Associated Press story a few days ago that was about baseball's crazy first half. That's definitely true.

From teams coming out of nowhere — hello, Tampa Bay Rays — to Ken Griffey Jr. and Manny Ramirez hitting milestone home runs, there's been a little something for everyone so far this year. Unless you're a Seattle fan.

The next few months of baseball should have some major story lines ahead. Here's my forecast:

The Boston Red Sox will win the AL East. I thought the Rays were one year away from being a really good team. They are in a place to contend for the division title within the next several years, but Boston's experience will be too much in 2008.

The Mets will continue their surge and win the NL East. The firing of Willie Randolph really seems to have been a good decision. Jerry Manuel will mix it up with anybody, including his own pitcher. The handling of Randolph was terrible, the overall decision was good. They'll pass the Phillies.

Which big name will get traded first? With teams now dropping out of contention, a few of the big names being tossed around are A.J. Burnett, Adrian Beltre, Adam Dunn, Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday. The least likely to move? I find it hard to believe that the Rockies would trade their absolute best player one year removed from the World Series.

The Cubs should hold on in the NL Central. I think the trade for Rich Harden will work out well — Sean Gallagher is a good prospect, but that's really the only significant piece the Cubs gave up.

What's going on in the NL West? Several pundits believed this years San Francisco Giants teams might be one of the worst in recent memory. Their roster isn't good — but they are in third in the division, seven games behind Arizona. The division-leading Diamondbacks are 47-48 and should hold off the Dodgers.

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