The NFL Draft is this weekend, and I am absolutely giddy.
Other than Opening Day in baseball and the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, the draft is my favorite sporting event from mid-February to August. Seriously.
It announces the arrival of football season again, after about three months off after the Super Bowl. It's such an inexact science, and that's what makes it fascinating.
One team's first rounder is another team's third. Some teams are thrilled to find the ultimate sleeper in the third round, while others consider him undraftable.
Then teams have to balance wants and needs, character issues and the strength of certain positions.
I'd love to post my complete, 32 team mock draft -at least the first round of it. But for your sanity, and mine, I'd like to offer an analysis on what I think the Carolina Panthers should do this year.
Ranked below, in order, is what I think Carolina's draft board should look like for players who might be available at No. 14.
No. 1: Patrick Willis, MLB, Ole Miss
I don't think he'll make it to Carolina - he'll go to either Buffalo or San Francisco, maybe even Detroit if the Lions trade down. But he'd be the perfect pick. He has experience going against the toughest college football teams. He's fast. He can wrap, tackle and pursue, and is an incredibly hard worker.
Perhaps most importantly, he's healthy. Given Dan Morgan's spotty history and uncertain future, this is a guy worth trading up and getting.
No. 2: LaRon Landry, S, LSU
I think Landry might be gone, too, but depending on how everything shakes out, he may slip this far. He's not quite the playmaker that Sean Taylor is, but he's pretty darn close. Some scouts think he's the best defensive player in the draft. I'm not sure he's on a Gaines Adams level, but not only is he an elite safety prospect, he fills a huge void at safety. Carolina is incredibly thin at safety, and its only reliable guy in Mike Minter will retire at the end of the season.
No. 3: Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
I kind of went back and forth between Anderson and the No. 4 guy on my list. Anderson is a little raw, but tremendously talented. Julius Peppers is obviously going to cause havoc on his side of the line, but with Kris Jenkins' future up in the air and Mike Rucker coming off major knee surgery, Carolina needs someone to take all of the heat off Peppers. Stanley McClover is the main backup right now after the release of Al Wallace, and while I think the second-year pro out of Auburn has tremendous potential, he was a seventh round draft pick and is certainly not a proven commodity. Anderson won't have to be an every down player right away. He can be a situational player, spelling Rucker and taking a certain percentage of snaps, and be completely ready for the starting gig next season.
No. 4: Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
This is the first guy so far that will almost certainly be available when Carolina drafts. Nelson had a great season at Florida, and has remarkable range. He's not quite the playmaker Landry is, and I haven't seen him been effective in run support, but would fill a huge need. This would not be a reach, either. He's really good.
No. 5: Adam Carriker, DE/DT, Nebraska
I'm normally not one for taking guys mainly because they can play two positions, but Carriker is a solid player with an outstanding background. He's really rocketed up the depth charts, has great character, and may not even be around for this pick. In all of the mock drafts I read, some have him going as high as No. 6 while some have him slipping to late in the first round. The Panthers could use him in the same way as Anderson, grooming him to replace Rucker at the end of the season.
No. 6: Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
This would be a fringe pick. The Panthers are starved for a tight end, and have been since Wesley Walls left. Freddie Jones and Kris Mangum just didn't cut it. I don't think Olsen is in the class of Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez or even Jeremy Shockey, but he would be a very nice addition. So many teams don't need a tight end, at least in the first round, so it would be wise to trade down and get him.
No. 7: Trade down
There's no one else worth picking at this point. Ted Ginn is a very fast wide receiver - so was Skyler Green from LSU (cut by Dallas). I think Ginn is definitely a reach as a WR - his value lies in being a kick/punt returner as well. No. 14 is just too high for a return guy who could develop into a good receiver. Anthony Gozalez, the best receiver on Ohio State last year, could be available in the second round. The wide receiver class is so deep this year, that there will still be plenty of options in the second round, maybe even the third.
No outside linebacker is worth this pick. Who's the best prospect? Is it Jon Beason? Lawrence Timmons? Paul Posluszny? I love Posluszny, the Penn State prospect, but move down and get him. Outside linebacker isn't a huge need, either.
Feel free to comment below and ask any questions, or make your own predictions. I discussed the Panthers because I figured it would be the team of most interest, but we can talk about anything draft related. I'd love to get some conversations started.
After all, tomorrow is the eve of the draft, which is like Christmas Eve and the last day of school all rolled into one.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
16 comments:
Brad! I need to know where you think some of the other big names will end up in this draft!! Where is Dwayne Jarrett going to end up? He seems, to me, to be the second best wide receiver (according to him, he is the best) but he's barely being mentioned.
Also, is there ANY way you can make sure Tampa Bay does NOT get Johnson, Peterson, or any other super athlete. I'm tired of the NFC South getting so much competition via draft (i.e. Vick and Bush)
Do you have any predictions for who the Panthers will draft in round 2 and/or 3? (haha, ofcourse you do)
Any chance the Panthers, or any team really, showing some D-I FCS love? Previous drafts have proven that those guys can definitely play and it'd be really nice to see a, oh I dunno, App State guy at least get picked up.
Good comments! Instead of posting my answers in one giant uber-post, I'll tackle them separately.
Dwayne Jarrett was widely considered a first rounder until he had a couple of poor workouts, namely his 40-yard dash time. I think he officially clocked in at 4.62 - to put that in perspective, Patrick Willis, a middle linebacker, ran a 4.4.
The 40 is a great measuring tool at measuring top-end track speed for certain athletes, but I've never put a ton of stock into it for a wide receiver. Jerry Rice ran very poor 40 times, but once he got behind the safeties on a slant pattern, NO ONE was going to catch him.
I think this has been blown way out of proportion because of the Mike Williams situation. Williams, a similar receiver from USC, ran a poor time and has been a bust. But he was out of football for a year and is lazy - he weighs as much as a tight end. Not sure where Jarrett will end up, but there are a group of teams in the 20s - Titans (19), Cowboys (22) and Chiefs (23) - that will all take a look at receivers. This receiver class is especially deep, so I wouldn't be shocked to see Jarrett fall into the second round.
If I was a general manager or coach, Jarrett would probably be third or second on my list, as well.
What the Panthers do in round two and three will obviously depend on a few factors, the most important one being who they drafted in the first round (duh). Also, this will also be affected if they trade Kris Jenkins.
But here are my best guesses.
I really think they'll look at a WR, if they don't get one in the first round. A few names? Sidney Rice, Anthony Gonzalez and Craig Davis. Gonzalez was Ohio State's best pure receiver last year, Davis did well at LSU and Rice came out after his redshirt sophomore year at South Carolina. A lot of times, I think when one position is particularly deep, a lot of teams don't reach for receivers in the first round, because they always think they can pick one up later. So I wouldn't be shocked if Dwayne Bowe (LSU) or Robert Meachem (Tennessee) fell.
Another receiver to eye is Aundrae Allison. He's a local guy, from East Carolina, and I know Carolina brought him in for an interview. I think the second round would be too high, but the Panthers really seem to be high on him.
Arizona State tight end Zach Miller is also worth a look, if Greg Olsen is not the pick in the first round.
As for as linebackers go, I think Carolina will take a look at Buster Davis (FSU), David Harris (Michigan), Brandon Siler (Florida) and H.B. Blades (Pitt) in the second and third rounds. John Fox actually answered a question posed by the Observer, saying they would definitely address middle linebacker in the draft at some point. Blades and Siler may be there in round three. Rufus Alexander and Prescott Burgess are also options at outside linebacker.
Finally, if the Panthers don't pick a safety, they will almost certainly take one in the second or third round. I really like Eric Weddle from Utah - he's a little undersized, but I think he'd fit in well with Carolina's defense. Also, Aaron Rouse from Virginia Tech is pretty good - and Carolina loves those Hokies (the team drafted three last year!). If Brandon Meriweather or Michael Griffin slips, the Panthers will jump on them.
Also, as for your previous comment, I'll do what I can (which isn't much) to try and get Tampa to hold up Calvin Johnson. What's interesting is that some people swear Atlanta will trade up and get him. Michael Vick throwing to Calvin Johnson? Yikes. I don't think Atlanta has enough to move up six spots, though.
Tampa is intriguing. They obviously want Johnson, and would probably have to swap first rounders and give up their second round pick, maybe something else. Detroit holds the key, though: if they can't work out a deal, they may do what San Diego did with Eli Manning and just draft Johnson themselves. If they can't work out a deal by the time Tampa is off the clock, they can just keep him (John Clayton suggested they might do this, which would be an excellent move).
You don't have to worry about Peterson, though: Tampa already has Carnell Williams.
There are a few fairly intriguing prospects from Division I-AA (excuse me, D-I FCS) teams. I'd love to see an App guy get drafted - don't know if it will happen, though.
The most intriguing prospect is Ben Patrick, a tight end from Delaware. He's 6'3, 250 and ran a blazing 4.7 40 - the best out of any tight end other than Greg Olsen. He's a great story though - played at Duke and graduated, then played one more year at Delaware. He really made an impact when someone else got injured, and Patrick was called in to the Senior Bowl as a replacement. And he put on a show.
Some teams will have him as the third best tight end - my gut tells me that, with his stock rising so fast, he'll be off the board by the middle of the third round.
A couple of other big-time prospects are Steve Blaylark, the running back from Massachusetts. He's a big dude, and can play running back, fullback or H-back.
The last FCS-school guy that I think will - or should - be drafted is Matt Gutierrez, from Idaho State. He actually signed with Michigan after being a top recruit. He redshirted, and was the projected starter next year. But he was injured, and couldn't effectively compete with Chad Henne. Henne won the job and Gutierrez just couldn't catch up to him after that.
As for App State players, I heard from a couple of ASU guys with connections that the New England Patriots were really studying William Mayfield. Don't know how reliable that is, though. He had a pretty good Pro Day at ASU, but didn't run a blazing 40 time. Also, Marques Murrell may get late-round consideration. He did a good job at a post-season all star game at outside linebacker, and would be perfect in a 3-4 scheme.
I do think Mayfield, Murrell and Jeremy Wiggins will be tagged "priority" free agents.
To the previous posters and everyone else - if you are Carolina fans, what do you think the Panthers should do?
Great post, hard to argue with any of those rankings, though I would like to add a few comments. Levi Brown will almost certainly not make it to 14 (but neither will Landry, Willis, or Anderson) and I think that would be a great pick considering Wharton is coming off major knee surgery. Speaking of that position, is it possible we reach for Joe Staley if we think we can't resign Gross after this season and/or if Wharton is not coming along as quickly as we wanted? Lastly, I would say with a fair amount of confidence that the Panthers will either end up with Reggie Nelson or Greg Olsen. That's assuming Willis, Landry, and Brown are all gone at this point. I'm hoping they pick Nelson over Olsen
Any thoughts on Miami's situation. Trent Green could be picked up then they could focus on another position to draft. Or what about the possibility of Oakland shocking the world and drafting Johnson number one overall and signing a free agent quarterback. What do you think??
Great point on Levi Brown. I just assumed he wouldn't be there and pushed him out of my mind. On my "list," I would probably put Levi Brown at No. 4, tied with Reggie Nelson.
Brown's stock has really shot up, and I think he'd really help with the offensive line problems Carolina's had the past couple of years. Brown could go to Atlanta, Miami or Houston, maybe even Buffalo. It would be a tough decision between him and Nelson, but I wouldn't argue that Levi Brown would be a bad pick.
But, I too am fairly certain the pick will be Nelson or Greg Olsen, and if I had to choose, I'd say they would pick Nelson.
As for Staley, I don't think the Panthers will draft him. I definitely see your reasoning, though. But I don't think Carolina can afford to play the "if we don't re-sign Gross, and if Wharton is slow coming back from injury ..." This draft is too important, and they have too many other needs. A lot of people think Staley - a third round pick a month ago - will end up with the Giants.
At one point, I really thought Oakland would try to sign a free agent to plug in for two years and draft Johnson. Sticking Johnson and Randy Moss on the outside, it wouldn't matter who was throwing them the ball.
At this point, though, it would be tough to draft Johnson and then try to sign, or trade for, a quarterback after the fact. Trying to trade for someone like Josh McCown would be tough - the Lions could ask for a lot more than normal because they know Oakland was desperate for a deal. And Oakland is desperate. Oakland's quarterbacks on roster? Andrew Walter, Josh Booty and Jeff Otis (who?!).
I guess if the Raiders drafted Johnson, they must REALLY like one of the second-tier quarterbacks like Drew Stanton or Trent Edwards that would be available in the second round. Or, they could get a great offer from Tampa and move down to four, pick up extra picks and draft Brady Quinn.
As for Miami, there's still a chance Brady Quinn could fall to them, which is the ideal scenario. Or they might trade up to get him. I do think the Dolphins will trade for Trent Green. It'd just be too tough for him to go back to Kansas City after being on the block for so long. Ideally, I think the Dolphins would like to trade for Green and still draft Brady Quinn. But if they do trade for Green and Quinn is gone, they'd probably pick Levi Brown.
The biggest thing holding up the Green pick is the draft pick - Kansas City wants a second rounder, Miami has offered a sixth. That's a deal that may even happen after the draft for a pick next year.
By the way, Miami's QB situation is even worse than Oakland's: Cleo Lemon and Gibran Hamdan (who?!). I'm not counting Daunte Culpepper because he's not ready to play - and he MAY be out the door to Oakland, although that'd be a real long shot.
I think I would rather the Panthers draft Beason/Timmons/Posluzny at 14 then Greg Olsen. While neither of these guys may be worth the 14th pick, neither is Greg Olsen. He'll most likely be drafted in the mid-20s if we don't take him. While I am not the one to tell you who the best OLB prospect of the 3 is (though I like Posluzny as well), I would hope the Panthers have a good idea of which of the 3 fit our scheme the best and who can contribute the most. We lost our leading tackler (Chris Draft) and it's almost a certainty Morgan will not play 16 games (I hate to say it), LB seems to be a glaring need right up there with Safety. I think the bottom line is the Panthers will be better off with one of those 3 LBs than they would with Greg Olsen. Thoughts?
Carolina did lose its top tackler in Chris Draft, although he played middle linebacker. I have a gut feeling Thomas Davis will break out this season - kind of like Will Witherspoon did in this third year (and they both went to Georgia).
I guess the main reason I think Carolina should take Olsen over a linebacker is because none of those top three outside linebackers are worth the No. 14 pick. You make a compelling point that neither is Olsen, but Carolina HAS to get better at tight end. They just have to. The drop off from Olsen is pretty severe, which is why he'd probably be a better "value."
Out of the top three linebackers, I also like Poluszny the best, and I would put Timmons at No. 2. There isn't a great need for outside linebackers this year, it seems - which is why one of those guys we just talked about could slip to No. 14. And some of the second tier guys aren't as good, but the drop-off to the second level isn't nearly as steep as it is for the tight ends.
Edit to my last post, third paragraph, fourth line:
" ... which is why one of those guys we just talked about could slip to the second round."
Hey Brad, any thoughts on where Troy Smith and Chris Leak will land? Even though they lack the height wanted by NFL teams, I think they've proven that they can play at the next level. What are your thoughts?
Most of the stuff I've read seems to say Chris Leak will be a second day pick. As for Smith, it's kind of hard to say. Both guys showed awesome leadership this year, which is important.
If I had to project, I'd say Leak goes in the fifth round and Smith goes in the third.
No idea who will take them, but the lack of height does hurt, simply because most NFL teams want the prototype 6'4 quarterback.
Post a Comment